Among the five countries with the fastest growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity in 2023, according to the list released by PV Tech, China still ranks first with a significant advantage, with photovoltaic growth rate significantly leading, and the United States ranking second. The Chinese photovoltaic industry is thriving, not only leading the global development of photovoltaics, but also taking the shortest time from breakthroughs in photovoltaic panel production technology to mass production. It can not only meet domestic demand, but also play a leading role in the global photovoltaic industry. In the first 11 months of 2023, the newly installed capacity reached 163.88 GW, and it is expected to exceed 180 GW throughout the year, which is much higher than the cumulative installed capacity of many countries; In November, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power in a single month reached 21.32GW, which is higher than the annual new installed capacity of most countries. However, according to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, among the four main links in the upstream and midstream of China’s photovoltaic industry chain, the production of polycrystalline silicon reached 1.14 million tons in the first 10 months of 2023 alone, a year-on-year increase of 86%; The production of silicon wafers reached 460GW, a year-on-year increase of 79%; The production of battery cells reached 404GW, a year-on-year increase of 74%; The component production reached 367GW, a year-on-year increase of 72%. The production capacity on the supply side is still significantly higher than domestic demand (with new installed capacity), which has led to a series of problems such as overcapacity, inventory backlog, price wars, and price reductions. It is precisely in this situation that seeking a larger market for exports and promoting capacity digestion have become necessary actions.
From the situation in 2023, China’s photovoltaic exports to the sea are still maintaining a high growth rate. According to the data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association from January to October, the export volume of silicon wafers reached 55.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 90%; The export volume of battery cells was 32.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 72%; The export volume of components was 177.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 34%. The overall data is still impressive, but there are also many hidden concerns. Firstly, the growth rate of component exports has slowed down due to the backlog of inventory in Europe and export restrictions in India; Secondly, overseas markets are also facing the problem of price reductions. While the export volume remains high, the total export value of China’s photovoltaic products in the first 10 months has decreased by 2.4%; Thirdly, photovoltaic companies are facing increasingly frequent trade restrictions such as tariffs and green certifications overseas.
The United States ranks second and is expected to add 33GW of photovoltaic installed capacity throughout the year. Moreover, the industry generally believes that if there are no significant changes in the domestic political situation in the United States, the future growth rate of photovoltaics will be even more significant. Previously, the Biden administration had announced a goal of achieving 100% clean power grid by 2035. According to Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance forecast, the installed capacity of new photovoltaic units in the United States will reach 358 GW between 2023 and 2030. If the forecast is true, the growth rate in the coming years will be much faster than in 2023. For the US market, Chinese photovoltaic companies, especially module manufacturers that suffered setbacks in Europe in 2023, are showing an increasingly positive attitude. As Trina Solar announced on September 11 last year that it had invested $200 million in Wilmer, Texas to build a module factory with an annual production capacity of approximately 5GW, China’s five major photovoltaic module companies (Jinko Energy, Longi Green Energy, Jinao Technology, Trina Solar, and Atlas) have all achieved their factory construction in the United States. Among them, the first US production line layout of Jinao Technology, Atlas, and Trina Solar was achieved in 2023.
In the latest issue of the Energy Infrastructure Update report, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) revealed the rise of photovoltaic systems in the US energy sector. According to data, in the first 10 months of 2023, the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the United States reached an astonishing 10937 MW, accounting for 42.1% of the total energy installed capacity in the country. This indicates that the position of photovoltaic power generation in the US energy sector is increasingly elevated. As of now, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the United States has accounted for 7.3% of the total installed capacity. Although there is still some distance compared to 11.6% of wind power facilities, photovoltaic power generation is rapidly approaching 7.9% of hydroelectric power generation. This undoubtedly demonstrates the enormous potential and strong growth momentum of photovoltaic power generation.
Ken Bossong, Executive Director of SUN DAY Campaign, stated, “Photovoltaic systems, as the fastest-growing source of electricity, are leading the United States towards a gradual transition from reliance on nuclear energy and fossil fuels. However, it is worth noting that the share of renewable energy in US energy production and consumption is still relatively small. This further emphasizes the need to vigorously develop more photovoltaic systems, wind power, and other renewable energy generation facilities to achieve significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”
Japan, Germany, and India rank third, fourth, and fifth respectively
Fuji Economic released a market forecast report for solar cells and related businesses in October last year. According to predictions, the value of the Japanese solar cell market in 2023 is 311 billion yen (approximately 15.199 billion yuan), a decrease of 7.1% compared to 2022; On the other hand, the power generation capacity is 7750MW, an increase of 1.2% compared to 2022.
Fuji Economic released a market forecast report for solar cells and related businesses in October this year. According to this forecast, the value of the Japanese solar cell market in 2023 is 311 billion yen (approximately 15.199 billion yuan), a decrease of 7.1% compared to 2022; On the other hand, the power generation capacity is 7750MW, an increase of 1.2% compared to 2022.
After 2020, with the increase in factory prices and electricity bills, the demand for solar cells in Japan has increased, and the market value of both residential and non residential sectors has a tendency to expand. In 2022, due to high electricity costs, the capacity of solar cells for residential use has significantly expanded, exceeding 1000MW. Due to the favorable situation in the residential sector, the capacity will continue to increase in 2023. However, due to the chaotic supply chain becoming more stable, factory prices will also decline, and the market value tends to shrink.
It is expected that by 2024, there will be an urgent demand due to the application of the FIT certification invalidation system for non residential areas. However, by 2025, due to the impact of the FIT system, the introduction of solar power generation will be significantly reduced, and both its value and quantity will be significantly reduced. It is predicted that the value of the Japanese solar cell market will continue to decrease to 223.2 billion yen (approximately 10.908 billion yuan) in 2040, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and the capacity will increase to 9070MW, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. It is expected that by 2024, there will be an urgent demand due to the application of the FIT certification invalidation system for non residential areas. However, by 2025, due to the impact of the FIT system, the introduction of solar power generation will be significantly reduced, and both its value and quantity will be significantly reduced.
On January 5th, the Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) of Germany released impressive data on Germany’s renewable energy installed capacity for 2023. This year, Germany’s solar installed capacity increased by 14.1GW, almost twice the amount in 2022. This is mainly due to a large number of privately installed solar photovoltaic modules, among which household photovoltaics have grown by an astonishing 135%. At the same time, the solar installed capacity of ground level centralized power stations and commercial rooftops has also increased significantly, by 40% and 75% respectively. Bavaria’s solar installed capacity has grown significantly in 2023, with an additional 3.5GW of installed capacity.
As of the end of 2023, Germany’s installed solar capacity has reached 81.7GW. However, Germany’s goal for 2030 is 215GW, which means that from now on, an additional 19GW of installed capacity will be needed each year. It is worth noting that most privately operated rooftop solar energy in Germany is equipped with battery storage systems. In 2023, approximately 70% of private solar facilities are equipped with energy storage batteries. This trend indicates that Germany’s development in the field of renewable energy not only focuses on scale expansion, but also on improving energy efficiency and stability.
However, India is predicted by the US Energy Agency to surpass China as the world’s largest photovoltaic installed capacity before 2050. However, its path to localizing photovoltaics is not smooth, with a 28% year-on-year decrease in new installed capacity last year, which is surprising. Many institutions believe that this is an example of its domestic manufacturing not being sufficient to support high growth plans. But the competition in this market will inevitably become increasingly fierce in the future. On January 11th, American photovoltaic giant First Solar announced an investment of $700 million to build a component factory in India, with an expected annual production capacity of 3.3 GW. If India can fulfill its market potential in the future, facing increasingly strict restrictions, Chinese photovoltaic companies may also go to India to build factories and further participate in competition. On the land of India, the newly added 6.5GW large ground photovoltaic power stations are rising like mushrooms, while 3GW rooftop photovoltaic power stations are also emerging. In addition, the newly added 500MW off grid/distributed solar power stations are India’s clever layout. India’s renewable energy installed capacity has reached a spectacular figure of 133.89GW, with solar energy contributing the most, accounting for about 55% of the market share.
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